The Office for National Statistics confirmed this morning what the sector has feared for two years: more than one million UK 16–24-year-olds are now not in education, employment or training. 1.012 million, to be precise. 13.5 per cent of the age group. Up 55,000 on the previous quarter and 89,000 on the previous year. The largest single-year rise this decade.
The release lands hours before former Labour minister Alan Milburn publishes the interim findings of his independent review into young people and work. His warning, briefed overnight: a “generational fault line” if the government doesn’t overhaul education, health, welfare and employment support together. Without it, his projection is 1.25 million NEET within five years.
The headline numbers
1.012 million UK 16–24-year-olds NEET (Jan–Mar 2026)
13.5% of the age group — up from 12.8% the previous quarter
553,000 young men NEET (14.4% — up 1.1pp on the quarter)
459,000 young women NEET (12.5% — up 0.3pp on the quarter)
1.25 million — Milburn’s projection if nothing changes
Driver: largely young men, sharp rise in economic inactivity
Why this matters beyond the headline
NEET isn’t a single statistic; it’s the visible end of three trends colliding. The first is structural: entry-level roles have been quietly hollowed out as AI and automation absorb the kind of work that used to be a young person’s first foothold. The second is health: youth mental-health caseloads have grown faster than the support system can scale, and a growing share of the NEET rise is economic inactivity tied to health, not job-search. The third is policy: the apprenticeship system is mid-reform, T Levels are mid-rebuild, and the employer side of the equation has been pulled in three directions by levy reform and Skills England restructuring.
The result is a generation of 18–24-year-olds standing at a careers door that’s narrower than it was for any cohort since the early 1990s. Milburn’s review is an attempt to call that what it is.
Every UK employer reading this morning’s ONS release has a hand in the answer. Apprenticeships are the most direct route a business has to bring a young person into work with funded, structured training. It’s also the route that’s most aligned with where the jobs are going. — Rod Doyle, Director, TESS Group
The mismatch underneath the NEET number
Employer demand isn’t the problem. Most UK regions are still showing vacancies in skilled trades, AI & automation, data, digital, care, retail management and hospitality. The mismatch is between the jobs available and the routes into them. A young person without a degree, looking for their first commercial role, is being asked to compete in a job market that has quietly raised its skills floor faster than its training infrastructure has adapted.
Apprenticeships are the system already designed for this gap. Funded, structured, employer-led, with a real job and a real qualification at the end. The barrier isn’t the model. It’s that not enough employers have an apprenticeship plan, and the ones that do skew toward older starts. The fastest lever an employer has on the NEET number is a 16–24 apprenticeship pipeline.
Where the AI angle fits
The same morning the ONS published the NEET data, Anthropic shipped Claude Opus 4.8, raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, and announced Claude deployment across KPMG’s 276,000 staff. AI capability is racing ahead at the top of the labour market while a record number of young people are locked out at the bottom.
That’s not a coincidence. It’s the same labour-market story told from both ends. An AI & automation apprenticeship like ST1512 directly connects a young person to the work the modern economy is generating: designing AI workflows, automating processes, governing AI deployments, building agentic systems. Fully funded for SMEs. No coding required. Real job from day one.
What the Milburn review is likely to recommend
The full report isn’t out yet, but the trail of briefings suggests a system-wide overhaul: an integrated approach across education, health, welfare and employment support; rebuilt local partnerships between providers, employers and local authorities; stronger guarantee of an offer for young people; and reform of the apprenticeship system to genuinely include 16–24-year-olds rather than tilt to older starters. Whatever the detail, the direction is clear: this isn’t a tweak to one programme. It’s a re-architecture of the youth-to-work transition.
Four things UK employers should do this quarter
The employer response, in four moves
1. Build a 16–24 apprenticeship pipeline. Identify the entry-level roles in your business that could be apprenticeship-funded. Most employers have more of these than they realise.
2. Prioritise AI & automation routes. The skills that match where the work is actually going. Our AI & Automation Practitioner Level 4 guide sets out the standard.
3. Use the levy, or the 100% SME funding. Levy-payers have a 12-month expiry on funds. SMEs under £3m payroll pay nothing. Both routes are free if used; lost if not.
4. Partner locally. Talk to colleges, providers and local authorities about young-person referrals. The pipeline already exists; most employers just haven’t tapped it.
How TESS Group fits
TESS delivers AI & automation, leadership and digital apprenticeships from Level 2 through Level 6 across the UK. We work directly with employers to build apprenticeship pipelines that bring young people into roles with real skills, real progression and real funding behind them. Ofsted Good. 4.9★ from 690+ reviews. 10,000+ learners trained.
If you’re an employer looking at this morning’s NEET number and asking what your business can do: the most useful thing is to commit, in writing, to one 16–24 apprenticeship hire this quarter and one more next quarter. Multiply that across UK employers and the curve bends.
The funded routes that fit
For school leavers and early-career roles: data, digital and AI Level 2–4 apprenticeships. For more technical pipelines: L4 (ST1512) and L6 (ST1398). For leadership-track young people: management apprenticeships and the AU0009/10/11 AI leadership units. All routes carry funded provision. SMEs under £3m payroll pay nothing.
Want to talk about building a 16–24 apprenticeship pipeline?
Tell us how many young hires you could realistically add this year, the departments you’d put them in, and your funding situation. We’ll show you the route in 25 minutes.
Sources & further reading
FE Week reporting on the 1.012 million figure: Youth NEET rate tips one million. ONS release: Young people not in education, employment or training, Feb 2026. Milburn warning: FE Week, NEET could hit 1.25m within five years.